Trouble Water in the South China Sea: Quo Vadis

The South China Sea (SCS) is the world’s second busiest international sea lane and conveys about one-fourth of the global crude oil and oil products. The regional states as well as the extra-regional powers are concerned on the security of the sea lane because of the overlapping claims of the Exclusive Economic Zones by the coastal states in this strategic sea. This paper examines the concept of preventive diplomacy as an ASEAN mechanism to maintain peace and stability in the SCS. Initially, the paper will discuss three major factors which can escalate into regional conflict namely; claims and counterclaims of the EEZ by the
coastal states and China, differing interpretation of UNCLOS 1982 concerning the use of high seas for military activities by other States, and sea power projection by extra-regional powers. To address these conflicting issues, the paper will examine the extent of the ASEAN maritime diplomacy in terms of security agreements such as the Zone of Freedom and Neutrality of 1971 (ZOPFAN), Treaty of Amity and Cooperation of 1998, and the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties (DoC) of2002, towards maritime cooperation in the region. Therefore, to maintain regional peace and stability, there are three mechanisms for ASEAN to pursue that is, upgrading DoC into a Consultative Council of South China Sea, formulation of prevention of incident at sea agreement between ASEAN-China and China-United States, and establishing light footprint’ of maritime peacekeeping operation in the SCS. In conclusion, the paper will impress upon the political will of ASEAN, China and the extra-regional power to maintain peace and stability in the SCS.